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One of the buzz words in NASCAR the past few years is the “Youth Movement”.
Veteran racers who have proven their ability to win races lose their jobs and have to take rides in less competitive teams. Meanwhile, young drivers who have not proven anything yet, are sought after by sponsors and team owners, and get the competitive driving positions.
Many long time race fans do not understand. They think the teams and sponsors are “selling out” to more attractive, brainwashed, corporate talking heads, instead of looking at driver ability. But, do top level drivers have a “prime”, and then a fall-off, like in other professional sports?
Looking at the statistics, top level stock car racing mirrors the other sports.
Looking at the age of each race winner between 2003 and 2007, we see a dramatic performance drop-off after a driver reaches 37 years old. In the 180 races held during those five seasons, drivers between the ages of 34-36 won 24% (43) of the races, while only 10% (18) of those races were won by drivers over 36 years old.
Among the eight drivers who won ten or more races during those five seasons, only one (Greg Biffle) was over 37. He is fifth on the list.
According to the statistics, Sprint Cup drivers peak somewhere between their 26th and 33rd birthdays. This is slightly older than the common Formula One rule of thumb that says a world championship driver peaks at 24 years old. As dramatic the performance drop-off is, the age when drivers start winning races is equally as steep. During the time period tested, only five races were won by drivers under 25 years old. At the same time 29 races were won by 25 and 26 year olds.
In a sport where 60, 70, even 80 year old drivers compete and win, why is there such a drop-off in driver performance in NASCAR? Well, there’s a huge difference between a local short track race, and a Sprint Cup race.
First, there’s the stamina involved. While most short track main events are between six and twenty miles long, with the longest races about 100 miles long, Cup races run between 260 and 600 miles. The longest Cup race, the Coca Cola 600, has only seen one 37+ driver (fitness fanatic Mark Martin) win in the past ten years. One of three races he’s won in the last seven years.
Second, NASCAR Sprint Cup is the most competitive racing anywhere. In 2007, there were 16 different winners in the 36 races. Very few racing series have 16 full time teams, let alone having 16 teams win a race.And it’s more competitive than ever. The list of the top 15 drivers in all time race wins has only one active driver. Jeff Gordon sits in sixth place with 81 wins. As of the time of this writing, Jeff (36 years old) has gone 26 races without a win. And only one driver older than 36 has won this season.
The average age of an effective (race winning) Sprint Cup driver (between 2003 and 2007) is 31.65 years old. How does that compare to other sports? The average age of a baseball player is 29.46 years old. In the NHL it’s 27.75. In the NBA, 26.89. NFL? 26.63.
When 155 of the 180 races were won by drivers between the ages of 25 and 36, and the top driver and sponsor contracts run at least five years long, it’s very easy to see why team owners and sponsors want to hire drivers as young as possible. It only makes sense.
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